Leinster Rugby vs Cardiff Blues
URC Round 13
RDS Arena, Dublin
Saturday, 28th January 2023, 17:05

TV: Live: Premier Sports/RTE

There's one last Leinster game left before the start of the Six Nations. So it's probably a good time to reflect where Leinster and indeed Ireland are at since they are largely the same group of players.

Leinster have won all sixteen games so far this season. In Europe they had a perfect record of 20 points from 20 which earned them top seeds and means they won't have to leave Dublin in the knock-out stages. And they have done this with a lengthy injury record that has seen them do without key men like Johnny Sexton, Tadhg Furlong, Jason Jenkins, Robbie Henshaw and James Lowe for most of the European campaign. On paper, everything looks rosy and the French media are making Leinster nailed on favourites to win since they'll be at home for the rest of the tournament.

However Leinster fans are getting an uneasy sense of deja vu. We've been here before and everything seemed to be going to plan, until it fell apart when it mattered. So in a sense the problems that Leinster have had at the scrum, lineout maul and ruck in the last two weeks may well be a useful reality check. For the first fifty five minutes Racing caused Leinster serious problems. It was only when Racing wilted in the last quarter that Leinster were able to use their silky skills out wide to run in a late glut of tries. But against better opponents like La Rochelle or Saracens in the latter rounds, will these silky skills bail them out? One try in their last three Heineken Cup finals would suggest they won't. The Leinster brains trust may need to come up with some different ways to win games when the sweet rugby isn't working.

One man who will have been keenly observing Leinster's problems in the tight is Warren Gatland. He's been Ireland's nemesis in the last decade and a half and now he's back as Wales coach like a ghost from Christmas past. You can see his plan forming to ambush Ireland in Cardiff on Saturday week. Use the rush defence to smash those pretty Leinster back plays to bits and squeeze the pack in the scrum and maul. Then unleash the likes of Justin Tipuric at the breakdown to cause havoc. On their recent records, Ireland v Wales shouldn't even be close, but you could certainly see Wales giving us a serious rattle.

Maybe it's a coincidence but since Gatland's comeback was announced, the Welsh regions have had a bit of an upturn in form. All four teams qualified for the knock-out stages in Europe (although that's no great boast really as it's so easy to qualify in the new format). The standouts have been the Ospreys who beat the French and English champions in successive weeks to almost earn a home last sixteen match. But Cardiff won three out of their four pool games too and they've had some decent wins this season in the league including wins over the Stormers, Sharks and Munster. But a lack of consistency means they lie 10th in table.

Head coach Dai Young has eight players in the Wales squad but has named a strong looking side. There are internationals in the backs in Rhys Priestland, Owen Lane. Jarrod Evans and Lloyd Williams. There are more internationals in the pack in Kirby Myhill, Seb Davies, Josh Turnbull and James Botham.

Leinster coach Leo Cullen, who signed a two-year contract extension this week, has twenty players away in Ireland camp plus another ten or so out injured. Sadly young Charlie Ryan is now removed from the injured list after announcing his retirement during the week. It's always tough to see a player retire due to injury, but it's especially hard when he never got the chance to show what he could do at senior level. Best of luck to Charlie for the future.

Leo has named a team showing fourteen changes from last week with just tighthead prop Michael Ala'alatoa retaining his place. Michael Milne and John McKee join Ala'alatoa in the front row. Ross Molony and Brian Deeny are in the second row and they're the only two fit available locks at the moment, with no specialist cover on the bench. Rhys Ruddock captains the team from blindside with Scott Penny (earning his 50th Leinster cap) and Max Deegan completing the back row. Harry Byrne and Luke McGrath are the half-back pairing and Ben Brownlee makes his first start at inside centre with Liam Turner outside him. Chris Cosgrave is named at full-back, with another full back Max O'Reilly named on the right wing and Dave Kearney lending some much needed experience on the left wing. Two stars from last year's Ireland under-20 grand slam team, James Culhane and Aitzol King, will make their senior debuts from the bench.

Considering they're missing the guts of thirty players, it's still a decent Leinster side although understandably callow in parts. With their more experienced side, Cardiff will fancy their chances and they have the memory of their win over Leinster in Cardiff last season. So it could be a competitive game, but hopefully Leinster have the quality to edge it.

by Jim O'Connor, © 2023-01-27