Leinster Rugby vs Stade Rochelais
Heineken Champions Cup Final
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Saturday, 20th May 2023, 16:45

TV: Live: RTE2/BT Sports

This is it!

The game which will decide whether this season has been a success or a second failure in a row. That seems a remarkable statement when you consider how many games they've won, how many tries they've scored and how often they've been called the best side in club rugby in the world in the last couple of years. But there's no point in winning all those games unless you can win when it really counts. For two decades the All Blacks played amazing rugby, winning loads of games and scoring amazing tries. But they went 24 years from 1987 to 2011 without winning a World Cup. So there's always a stigma over those teams, as brilliant as they were. You gotta win when it really matters, or else you get forgotten.

Last week Leo Cullen gambled that Leinster could beat Munster with a largely second string team. The gamble almost paid off but ultimately Leinster lost for the first time this season in a game of significance. Despite being under pressure for most of the game, Leinster ultimately had a winning position with five minutes to go. But they played the last five minutes very naively, making several bad errors and Munster went the length of the pitch to take their chance. So for the second season in a row Leinster finished top of the URC table only to lose in the semi-final after not fielding their first choice side. It's annoying because it would be great to see Leinster take on the Stormers with both their full-strength teams playing.

Did Cullen do the right thing? Obviously a lot will depend on how Saturday goes, but he was kinda damned either way. If he'd picked a stronger team but then picked up an injury to a key man like Dan Sheehan, Garry Ringrose or Jamison Gibson-Park fans would be screaming at him for taking such a crazy risk. But perhaps he could have gone a little stronger, not the full team but maybe started some of the players rested against the Sharks or at least had a few on the bench as a failsafe. But it's gone now and now at least the team has utter clarity. They need to win on Saturday or face another year of misery carrying around the memory of another defeat in the final, once again failing to do the business when it really counted.

But winning is easier said than done, especially when it's against a La Rochelle side that's beaten Leinster two years running. Somewhat remarkably this is the first time in the history of the tournament that the same two teams have met in the final for a second year running. But you always felt it was going to end up that way. La Rochelle were decent in the pool stages beating Northampton comfortably. They also had two really strange games against Ulster. The first one was moved at the last minute to a mostly empty Aviva although some of their fans bullied their way in, much to the chagrin of the locked out Ulster fans. They won that game handily but failed to get a four try bonus point. The other was played in some of the heaviest rain ever seen in any match and La Rochelle needed a last minute try to win 7-3.

In the knock-out stages La Rochelle played three English clubs. Amazingly it was lowly Gloucester that gave them the best game in the last sixteen round. La Rochelle needed a 78th minute Teddy Thomas try to rescue the game. They were much better in the next two rounds, comfortably beating Saracens and destroying Exeter, two former champions at the end of their life cycle. But La Rochelle haven't beaten anyone of the standard of Toulouse, a team they have mostly lost against over the last few seasons, including the 2021 Heineken Cup plus the knock-out stages in the last two Top 14s. So what do Toulouse, a team Leinster have hammered twice in the last two seasons, do to La Rochelle that Leinster can't?

It's interesting to watch last year's final back as it wasn't all bad. Leinster mauled really well at times in the first half and won a slew of penalties. And despite losing the try count 3-0, they did actually defend pretty heroically at times including at the end, when La Rochelle scored off a slip. But Leinster's handling was dreadful almost from the first minute and they seemed spooked by the ferocity of the La Rochelle defence. When you remember the build-up to the final, you couldn't hear anyone in the media, Irish or international, back against Leinster. Everyone was saying it would be a stroll in the park for Leinster and and despite all their players' talk about "shutting out the noise" they wouldn't be human if that didn't seep through. They were like Munster in 2009 in Croke Park, the surest of sure things, while La Rochelle were like Leinster in that game, written off by everyone and quite pissed off about it. Ronan O'Gara didn't need to motivate his team, the media did that for him.

This year the build-up has been in stark contrast and most pundits seem to be backing La Rochelle. In truth La Rochelle's team is better than last year's side. The Samoan UJ Seuteni has been a revelation in the centre and offers a more attacking threat than Jeremy Sinzelle. Fly-half Antoine Hastoy seems an all-round better fly-half than Ihaia West. And Ultan Dillane was signed from Connact and the lock has played regularly at number six. At one stage Dillane looked to be the next big thing in Irish rugby but for various reasons it never quite happened. But he'll be hugely motivated to show his former Ireland teammates his true value.

So do Leinster have any chance at all tomorrow? According to the media La Rochelle will bully them at the set-piece, brutalise them at the breakdown and offload their way through them in the backs. Well there is some hope when you remember the Ireland v France Six Nations game this season. Ten of the Leinster players playing tomorrow played in that game compared to just three of La Rochelle's squad so it really shouldn't come into it right?

Maybe, but two of La Rochelle's three most important players were playing that day and they didn't have a nice time of it. There was gasps amongst the home fans when the great Gregory Alldritt was subbed off on 52 minutes looking absolutely gassed. Alldritt is normally a player who goes to the final minutes but he had possibly his quietest game ever for France in stark contrast to his opposite number Caelan Doris who had a game for the ages. Another La Rochelle totem, Uini Atonio, departed five minutes later, looking similarly exhausted. This was telling considering he had a ten minute rest in the first half with the yellow card that should have been a red. Granted, Australian international Will Skelton wasn't playing that day, but France's 'Big Man' Paul Willemse was and he departed after 46 minutes.

Yes, the pace of the game had been exceptional but it wasn't just that. The Irish forwards and especially James Ryan were on a mission to make the big men pay everytime they came near a ruck. They contested the breakdown in a precise but vicious manner and the exact same thing is required tomorrow. He hasn't been nominated for any of the player of the year honours, but in many ways Ryan has been Leinster's key man this season. The back rows and backs get the headlines but they all know none of it happens without your front five giving you the platform to play and Ryan has been like a man on a mission. You almost get the sense he's been training all season like Rocky with a picture of Will Skelton on his locker. He has a massive point to prove tomorrow.

For La Rochelle head coach Ronan O'Gara has made just the two changes to the side that beat Exeter in the semi-finals. Jonathan Danty is fit again to play at inside centre and he's a massive presence, who was missed badly by France in the Six Nations. Danty makes up an exciting centre pairing with Seuteni. After missing last year's final Tawera Kerr-Barlow is named at scrum-half where he partners Hastoy. South African wingers Dillyn Leyds and Raymond Rhule make up the back three with Brice Dulin at full back. In the pack Paul Boudehent replaces Dillane at blindside in the second change to the starting lineup. Number eight and skipper Alldritt is flanked by the monstrous Levani Botia who completes the back row at openside. Romain Sazy partners Skelton in the second row while Atonio is named at tighthead with Pierre Bourgarit at hooker and Reda Wardi at loosehead.

For Leinster there are just two changes from the win over Toulouse with the fit again James Lowe and Robbie Henshaw coming back into the team. You'd hope Lowe is really fit because last year he played with an injury in the final and was extremely quiet by his normal standards. In the most notable calls in the pack Ross Molony is picked at lock instead of Jason Jenkins and Jack Conan continues at number eight with Caelan Doris at six. Molony has started every Heineken Cup game for Leinster this season and is a key man in the lineout and in the attack. But does he have the physicality to take on the La Rochelle pack? This did seem the type of game that Jason Jenkins was signed for but he's been left in reserve. Also Caelan Doris plays his best rugby at number eight and was sensational against Alldritt in the Six Nations. Jack Conan has been in superb form and it would have been extremely tough to drop him but it has seemed the back row has operated at its best this season with Doris at eight and Baird at six. Jenkins and Baird take their place on a very strong looking Leinster bench where the impressive Charlie Ngatai gets the nod for backs cover and Ciaran Frawley covers out-half.

So can Leinster win tomorrow? Well first things first, they've got to actually play well. For the past three finals they haven't actually played well and only scored one try across the three games. They got away with it against Racing in 2018 and still won but they need to back their skills and really produce a performance. Again there is hope looking back to the Six Nations. Last season in Paris Ireland's attacking gameplan fell apart in the face of the French blitz defence. But this season Ireland took on France playing their own fast, skillful game and it worked. More of that please!

A lot has been said about La Rochelle's great fitness levels but around the 60 minute mark last season they looked knackered. Then a few lucky bounces went their way and Leinster gifted them the ball back and they summoned up the energy to get the winning score. So moving those big men around could still work. As poorly as Leinster played in last season's final, they were still within a few minutes of winning the game. Imagine what will happen tomorrow if Leinster perform. And last of all don't forget Leinster have some pretty amazing players who have delivered massively under pressure in the last twelve months in New Zealand and in the Six Nations. We're not asking players to play to some incredible level they've never reached before, they just need to play to their normal brilliant standard.

Another big difference of course is instead of playing in 30 degrees in the South of France, they'll be playing on a nice, mild, dry day in Dublin. But to really make the most of that difference, Leinster fans need to up our game. We need to get there early, bring the flags and the colour and most of all "Bring the Noise" during the game. The lads need to hear us behind them for the whole game even if it's not going well. The La Rochelle fans will be noisy so we need to throw it right back at them.

The players need to win tomorrow, not just for Johnny, Dave K and Stu, not just for the fans, not just for their families, but most of all for themselves! They're a great bunch of lads and a superbly talented group. They deserve to be champions and if they turn up and produce their best form, that's what they'll be!

C'MON LEINSTER!!!!!

by Jim O'Connor, © 2023-05-19